The project "Strategy for the long-term development of the Republic of Armenia with low greenhouse gas emissions (until 2050)" was developed .
The document considers 5 sectors: energy, industrial processes, agriculture, forestry and other land use, waste.
In the long term, until 2050, the RA government aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 2.07 tons per capita.
The energy sector is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions. In 2017, the energy sector accounted for 66.7% of Armenia's total greenhouse gas emissions. Most of the sector's emissions, 77%, come from burning fossil fuels.
The second sector that produces the largest amount of greenhouse gas emissions is agriculture with a share of 18.5%. About 5.84% of total emissions occur in the waste sector.
To support the economy in the process of carbon reduction, the government plans to introduce mandatory accounting of low-carbon activities through the use of international standards (such as International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards). The possibility of introducing fiscal incentives for subjects using low-carbon and non-carbon technologies will be considered. The government is also committed to developing a "Climate-External Debt" offsetting mechanism, which aims to attract additional financial resources for actions aimed at combating climate change.
The strategy considers three main scenarios within which Armenia will achieve its low carbon development goals. Scenario modeling is based on the assumptions that in the long term, Armenia's GDP will grow by an average of 4% per year, and the population will reach 5 million in 2050.
In this publication, we present the proposed scenarios for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector.
The "No Action" ("NA") scenario assumes an increase in greenhouse gas emissions in all sectors.
The "Measures" ("M") scenario includes measures implemented and planned to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in all five sectors. Under this scenario, greenhouse gas emissions would decrease only in the forestry sector due to increased forest cover and enhanced carbon sequestration capacity.
If the "Additional Measures" ("AM") scenario is implemented, it will be possible to ensure a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 emission levels and the target indicators for 2050.
The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector, according to the draft strategy, will be possible through the commissioning of new renewable and nuclear energy capacities.
In scenario "M" the target solar power capacity is 700 MW by 2050. This capacity should be commissioned by 2030 and maintained for the next 20 years, resulting in a reduction of 13,367 GgCO2cm in total greenhouse gas emissions. in size.
The "LM" scenario assumes the operation of 1,000 MW of solar photovoltaic plants by 2030, maintaining this capacity for 10 years, and commissioning an additional 50 MW of capacity annually from 2040. In 2050, the expected installed capacity of solar plants should be 1550 MW. Over the course of 20 years, the total emissions of greenhouse gases will decrease by 22,248 GgCO2. in size.
The "LM" scenario calls for the commissioning of wind and hydropower capacities starting in 2040. Wind power capacity is growing to 610 MW annually, leading to a reduction in total greenhouse gas emissions of 8,348 GgCO2 by 2050. in size. The installed capacity of hydropower plants should reach 430 MW by 2040, which will allow to reduce the total emissions of greenhouse gases by 11 129 GgCO2. in size.
Scenario "M" assumes a reduction of uncontrolled emissions by 67.54% in 2050, providing a reduction of total greenhouse gas emissions of 45,312 GgCO2 equivalent. in size. The "LM" scenario offers a slightly lower reduction of 66.87% and a reduction in total greenhouse gas emissions of 43,583 GgCO2 equivalent. in size.
For both "M" and "LM" scenarios, the role of nuclear energy is crucial. It is planned to finish the construction of the nuclear power plant by 2036 and start its operation. According to the document, the power of the nuclear power plant will be 212 MW in 2036, and it will reach 1,060 MW in 2050, which will allow reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 3,675 GgCO2 in 2050. amount or in total during 15 years: 48 946 GgCO2 equivalent. in size.
The strategy was developed by the RA Ministry of Environment within the framework of the EU-UNDP regional program "European Union for Climate". It was developed in fulfillment of the international obligations undertaken by RA: the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol and its Doha amendment, the Paris Agreement.